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DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/23 11:27

DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/23 11:27

Grains Mixed at Midday

Mixed trade is seen at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow futures up 40 points.
The interest rate products are higher. The dollar index is 50 points higher.
Energies are lower with crude down 0.60. Livestock trade is mixed led by
cattle. Precious metals are lower with gold down 12.50.


Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher in quiet midday trade with light buying to
open the week. Fieldwork should expand in some areas this week with drier
pockets to the east with warmer temps expected to wait until next week, with
delays are expected to persist in Iowa/Minnesota area, with planting progress
likely trailing average but not by a large amount. The weekly export
inspections remained strong at 1.719 million metric tons. The second crop areas
of Brazil look to remain on the dry side in the near term as well, with some
spotty rain. Ethanol futures have edged back under the 1.50 mark, with a soft
start on the energy complex to start the week. On the May chart we are below
the 20-day at $3.82 3/8 with the 100-day at 3.71 becoming support.


Soybean trade is drifting lower, off 6 to 10 cents at midday and making new
lows for the move. Meal is 2.50 to 3.50 lower and oil is 25 to 35 points lower,
with crush margins narrowing again. The recent pattern in South America should
remain intact near term allowing for greater progress in Brazil harvesting,
with values remaining elevated for Brazilian producers to encourage harvest
selling in the near term, and the US export wire has quieted down the last few
days with no announced sales in a week. Trade will be looking for signs of
additional acres, with the weather challenges rolling acres over from wheat and
corn. Export inspections remained soft at 470,817 metric tons. On the May
contract, trade has slipped below the 50-day at $10.38, with the 100-day at
$10.15 as the next level of support.


Wheat trade is mixed at midday with KC firming after rains passed through
Kansas over the weekend, with limited follow up, while more open conditions are
adding pressure to the spring wheat. Warmer conditions coming should help to
boost maturity with rain needed to shake off freeze damage along with salvaging
diminished potential. Spring wheat growing areas look more open but will need
to thaw for better progress to be made. The stronger dollar will likely limit
upside as the US becomes less competitive on the world market, barring quality
bids. The weekly crop progress is likely to be steady with maturity falling
further behind normal, and spring wheat planting remaining well behind normal
pace. Export inspections were better than expected at 619,251 metric tons. On
the May KC contract support is the 100-day at $4.70 below that with resistance
the 20-day at 4.88, which we are testing overnight.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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