Dakotaland Feeds, LLC

Cattle on Feed Report 04/20 15:00


Cattle on Feed Report 04/20 15:00

By John A. Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst

USDA Actual Average Guess Range
Cattle on Feed:
On Feed April 1 107.0% 107.5% 106.5-108.0%
Placed in March 91.0% 90.0% 85.0-94.0%
Marketed in March 96.0% 96.0% 95.0-96.5%

This report came in pretty much on target relative to trade
expectations. Last month's placement was a bit larger than the
average guess, but hardly anything to write home about. Remember
that the placement of March 2017 was record large, so even a 9%
cutback is still a fairly large feedlot in-movement.

The inventory included 7.54 million steers and steer calves, up
4% from the previous year. This group accounted for 64% of the
total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.19
million head, up 14% from 2017. The increase in the use of
heifer feeder cattle is another sign that expansion plans are
slowing.

The March marketing total proved to be no surprise. Keep in mind
that last month contained one fewer business than March 2017.
That means the daily average marketing in March was about even
with 2017.

Clearly, feedlots are locked and loaded in terms of fed beef
production potential. The April 1 buck line represents the
second longest to be recorded since the data series began in
1996. But with June and August live futures closing today $15-
$16 below spot April, and $18-$19 below spot cash, the big
question seems to be how much of this bearish supply news is
already built into the board.

For more Harrington comments, check out
http://www.feelofthemarket.com


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