Dakotaland Feeds, LLC

USDA Cattle On Feed and Cattle Inventory 07/19 15:35


USDA Cattle On Feed and Cattle Inventory 07/19 15:35

By John A. Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst

USDA Actual Average Guess Range
Cattle On Feed:
On Feed July 1 xxxxxx 104.0% 102.5-106.0%
Placed in June xxxxxx 101.5% 95.5-106.5%
Marketed in June xxxxxx 101.0% 98.5-106.5%

The July Cattle on Feed report set for release on Friday is
expected to reveal exceptional marketings and a narrowing of on-
feed inventories relative to the year prior. If marketings come
in as expected, they will be relatively in line with steer and
heifer slaughters seen throughout June. Yet when adjusted for
one less business day in 2018, the total may be up 5.5% from the
year prior.

Placement activity will be compared with the largest placement
total in 11 years. If realized, it will be the second-largest
June placement total since 2006. With June marketings seasonally
exceeding placements, on-feed inventories are expected to ease,
falling toward 11.2 million head on-feed, but are expected to
remain record large for the month and nearly 4% larger than the
year prior.

The July 1 Cattle Inventory report will be released at the same
time as the on-feed data. This report typically lacks the
respect commanded by the Jan. 1 herd survey becomes it is based
on a much smaller sample. Nevertheless it should echo the same
trend identified in January (i.e., ongoing expanding, but at a
slowing pace).

Our guess is that the total herd count on July 1 will be
documented around 103 million head, about a half percent more
than midsummer 2017. Beef cows should total close to 1% greater
than last year (around 33 million). And the first estimate of
the 2018 is likely to be close to 36.4 million head, 1-1.5%.

For more Harrington comments, check out
http://www.feelofthemarket.com


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