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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/23 11:39


DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/23 11:39

Lower Tones Settle into the Livestock Complex

With a depressed tone settling into all of the livestock contracts as the
market heads into the day's afternoon, a lower close could be expected for the
contracts.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

With a depressed tone settling into all of the livestock contracts as the
market heads into the day's afternoon, a lower close could be expected for the
contracts.

LIVE CATTLE:

Friday's market continues to trade with a doggish and skeptical tone as the
market anxiously awaits Friday's Cattle on Feed Report. Traders and cattlemen
alike would love to believe analysts' estimates for the report but given that
they've gotten their hopes up in months past believing that placements will be
lower only to see on Friday afternoon that they're reported higher has everyone
leery. Regardless of how the on-feed and placement data fairs, the market is at
least going to be able to appreciate the marketing portion of the report as
analysts believe marketings could be as much as 6.5% higher than a year ago.
October live cattle are down $0.55 at $144.30, December live cattle are down
$0.70 at $148.67 and February live cattle are down $0.87 at $152.90. The cash
cattle market hasn't seen any bids renewed at this time and it's looking like
the vast majority of the week's business is done. Throughout the week Southern
live cattle traded for $143 which is $1.00 stronger than last week's weighted
average, and Northern dressed cattle traded for mostly $228 which is also $1.00
stronger than last week's weighted average.

Friday's Imported Meat report shares that for the week fresh beef imports
totaled 23,568 metric tons with Canada, Mexico and Australia being the biggest
importers. Year-to-date fresh beef imports total 867,310 metric tons, which is
8% greater than when compared to a year ago. Processed beef imports for the
week total 2,528 metric tons with Brazil contributing 67% of that shipment.
Year-to-date processed beef imports total 69,966 metric tons which is 21%
greater than when compared to a year ago.

Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $0.11 ($248.29) and select down
$1.52 ($220.59) with a movement of 64 loads (41.73 loads of choice, 9.51 loads
of select, 5.37 loads of trim and 7.47 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle market continues to sell out despite the corn complex
trading as much as $0.12 to $0.13 lower in its nearby contracts. September
feeders are down $0.17 at $178.02, October feeders are down $0.02 at $177.95
and November feeders are down $0.20 at $177.90. The market would like to rest
its hat on the wins the fat cattle market saw earlier this week, but until the
market can see exactly how Friday's Cattle on Feed report pans out, all are
hesitant. However, if the report can indeed display what analyst's projected,
then the market sits in a fine position to rally as early as next week.

LEAN HOGS:

With the rest of the livestock complex taking a hesitant stance in Friday's
market, the lean hog market has opted to follow suit even though it saw strong
export sales on Thursday and pork cutout values closed $3.53 higher Thursday
afternoon. October lean hogs are down $1.22 at $92.90, December lean hogs are
down $2.45 at $83.22 and February lean hogs are down $2.30 at $87.45. It's
likely that the market keeps with this lower trend through closing, but it
won't likely pressure the market support plane of $82.25.

The projected lean hog index for 9/22/2022 is down $0.42 at $97.59, and the
actual index for 9/21/2022 is up $0.05 at $98.01. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $7.71 with a weighted average of $86.21,
ranging from $84.00 to $105.00 on 3,241 head and a five-day rolling average of
$93.03. Pork cutouts total 210.13 loads with 197.19 loads of pork cuts and
12.94 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $2.30, $101.58.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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