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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/19 11:44


DTN Midday Livestock Comments 04/19 11:44

Cattle Dive Lower While Hogs Keep Rallying

It's been a brutal morning for cattle contracts but a breath of fresh air
for hogs. Heading into the afternoon there's not a lot of support building in
favor of cattle futures.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cattle and lean hog futures are trading on two totally different spectrums
as the cattle contracts bear lower without any trader interest whatsoever, and
hogs see gains of $2.00 to $3.00. Heading into the later part of the day,
keeping an eye on slaughter speeds for both markets will be important and it
could show signs of packer aggression in the days to come. May corn is up 5 1/2
cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $5.10. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average is down 165.09 points and NASDAQ is down 172.24 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures aren't overly amused with Monday's arrival and are
neglecting to rally any trader support. April live cattle are down $0.60 at
$120.25, June live cattle are down $0.42 at $118.75 and August live cattle are
down $0.50 at $118.65. Last week's cash cattle trade was bothersome in the
number of cattle that are committed for the extended delivery. With supplies of
market-ready cattle manageable, it's hard to stand much of a chance at trading
higher when packers have a considerable percentage of their cattle already
committed. Heading into this week's trade, feedlots will swing at higher prices
but packers are going to want the market to trade steady at best. New showlists
appear to be higher in Texas, Nebraska and Colorado, but somewhat lower in
Kansas.

Last week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 88,624 head. Of that 55%
(48,568 head) are committed for delivery in the next two weeks while the
remaining 45% (40,056 head) are committed for delivery in the following 15 to
30 days.

Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.23 ($275.82) and select down
$1.58 ($270.68) with a movement of 52 loads (20.85 loads of choice, 7.67 loads
of select, 5.70 loads of trim and 17.90 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures are not amused by the corn market's modest rally.
April feeders are down $1.67 at $137.95, May feeders are down $1.25 at $142.27
and August feeders are down $1.97 and $152.57. The sheer pressure looming over
the feeder cattle complex is immense as feedlots have to manage rising cost of
gains and stomach fat cattle selling around $120 live. The feeder cattle market
desperately needs to see the corn market stabilize and needs to see fat cattle
prices strengthen to take some of the burden of higher input costs out of the
equation.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog contracts rounded out last week on a tougher note, even though
packers fully supported Friday's market heading into the weekend. There was
some worry that with a disrupted kill schedule last week hog supplies may back
up. But with supplies as thin as they are right now packers still had to jump
into the market aggressively to secure supplies necessary Friday afternoon.
Jumping into Monday's trade, the board is completely supportive of higher trade
but it's too early to really get a good feel about how packers are going to
approach the week. June lean hogs are up $3.25 at $104.95, July lean hogs are
up $2.77 at $102.47 and August lean hogs are up $2.55 at $98.70.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 4/16/2021 is up $0.51 at $103.75, and
the actual index for 4/15/2021 is up $0.21 at $103.24. Hog prices are lower on
the National Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.96 with a weighted average of
$103.00, ranging from $102.15 to $108.00 on 3,028 head a five-day rolling
average of $101.75. Pork cutouts total 162.81 loads with 146.27 loads of pork
cuts and 16.54 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.61, $114.70.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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