DTN Midday Livestock Comments 09/22 11:32

Cattle Head Higher as Market Awaits Friday's Cattle on Feed Report

With total on-feed numbers and placements forecast to be lighter on Friday
afternoon's Cattle on Feed report, the cattle complex is back to trading
higher.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle contracts are back to trading higher while the lean hog complex
continues to endure stiff pressure. The cattle market is eager to see what
Friday afternoon's Cattle on Feed report unveils as the report is projected to
display lighter on-feed numbers and fewer placements. December corn is up 3/4
cent per bushel and December soybean meal is down $2.70. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is up 25.73 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

After being pressured throughout all of Thursday's trade, the live cattle
complex is back to trading mostly $1.00 higher Friday. The market is anxiously
waiting to see what comes of this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report as there's
a chance lighter placements could mildly support the market. Placements and
total on-feed numbers are expected to be lighter than a year ago, which should
naturally add support to the complex, but seeing that support carry over into
stronger trade throughout the futures contracts remains the question. No new
cash cattle sales have been reported following the trade that developed
Thursday afternoon. Southern live cattle were marked at $183 and Northern
dressed cattle were marked at $292 -- both of which are steady with last week's
weighted averages. October live cattle are up $1.47 at $186.45, December live
cattle are up $1.30 at $190.80 and February live cattle are up $1.07 at
$195.15.

Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.24 ($304.17) and select up $1.30
($280.30) with 66 loads (42.67 loads of choice, 9.19 loads of select, 4.40
loads of trim and 9.76 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

The feeder cattle complex also is trading higher into Friday's noon hour as
traders feel reaffirmed in their decision to move the contracts higher as they
watch the live cattle contracts trade mildly higher as well. September feeders
are up $0.82 at $254.10, October feeders are up $1.20 at $258.97 and November
feeders are up $0.62 at $263.32. This afternoon's Cattle on Feed report could
be another feather of support for the market if placements land on the lower
end of analysts' estimates. Either way, demand in the countryside remains
incredibly strong, which continues to keep the market from seeing much downside.

LEAN HOGS:

It's looking as though Thursday's downturn in the lean hog market wasn't
just because of the outside economical pressures the market was facing, but
also because traders felt as though the market's recent run was overdone. The
complex is trading anywhere from $1.00 to $2.00 lower with the nearby contracts
enduring the most pressure. October lean hogs are down $0.70 at $82.25,
December lean hogs are down $2.02 at $72.45 and February lean hogs are down
$2.05 at $75.70. At this point it's likely the market will close with this grim
tone and look to next week's complex to either add support or find a bottom for
the move.

The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 9/21/2023 is down $0.09 at $87.08, and
the actual index for 9/20/2023 is up $0.50 at $87.17. Hog prices on the Daily
Direct Morning Hog Report average $77.95, ranging from $73.00 to $80.00 on
2,360 head and a five-day rolling average of $78.24. Pork cutouts total 196.35
loads with 178.86 loads of pork cuts and 17.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout
values: down $0.29, $98.46.

ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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